Very likely. An empire rises because it creates wealth. An empire falls because it destroys wealth. There are two ways an empire falls: it always remains a hegemony and falls with the whole civilization, such as the Easter Island civilization; or it falls and lets another empire replace it so the civilization can sustain itself. Today, the world is a globalized world. The US empire can stay hegemony and fall to the destination of destroying whole human beings, or it falls by losing its hegemony position so the human has a future.

The US was rising after the second industrial revolution when it created more wealth than it consumed. After WWII, it rebuilt Europe and created wealth for the world. When the US created wealth, the economic system based on Brenton Woods Agreement was working and the economy was growing. The American Empire during Cold War was the Western Bloc. The economy was not only growing but growing faster than the Eastern Bloc.

After the collapse of the USSR, the American Empire expanded to Eastern Europe and tried to expand into countries of most former Eastern Bloc. At the same time, It enhanced its hegemony position in the Western Bloc by stopping the Japanese tech advancement to prevent Japan to surpass it. It also waged Kosovo War to sabotage Euro so to protect the Dollar hegemony.

The American Empire controls the whole world except China, Russia, North Korea, and Cuba. The empire controls a larger sphere than that as the Dollar is the dominating currency in the world economy. Even China and Russia have to pay the Dollar tax when they trade in the world economic system. America Empire has actually taxed the whole world through its Dollar. It raises debt with zero-interest-rate since 2008, or the debt has zero cost. By printing money and raising debt faster than economic growth, the world is undergoing inflation. I already feel the inflation at gas pumps and in my shopping for groceries. The Empire is addicted to raising debt to fund its pandemic rescue stimulation and its infrastructure. The Empire has been reducing wealth in the system by wars that destroy wealth, and by abusing materials as it can tax the world as it wishes by raising debt at zero or even negative cost. This is the decline of the Empire. The debts of its government and its households have been increasing and the zero-interest-rate policy becomes perpetual. This economy is not sustainable. The empire is willing to destroy 1 billion in wealth through wars in order to harvest 1 million in wealth from the world system. The US can gain without loss but the world system is deteriorating. The empire can get by as long as China is still creating wealth for the world system. In the present world economic system, China is the net wealth source and the US is the net wealth sink. Yet, the US has the impulse to wage war on China, as it sends fighter carriers fleets approaching China on large scale and frequently. Once the conflict between the US and China is out of control, the empire system will collapse immediately.

The empire has absolute power in the world and this absolute power corrupts absolutely. The empire is addicted to raising debt to fund wars and addicted to wars to enforce its dollar hegemony, using its dollar hegemony to tax the whole world.

The empire has been falling since 2008 and the fall has been accelerated since 2020. The empire itself is sabotaging its world order by quitting Paris Agreement, quitting Iran Nuclear Deal, quitting the WHO, and quitting WTO. Quitting may be too strong a word, but the empire has no respect for all the rules itself has established. The empire becomes the biggest rogue state in the system where it has the hegemony position. It actually dictates the world by ignoring all the rules.

We are living in an era in which the empire is falling. We witness the behaviors of the empire and every of its behavior is a sign of its decline. It falls as Roma fell that the empire tax more than the world can produce and survive.

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Xiaoming Guo

Ph.D. from McGill University. MBA from Queen’s University. A patriot Canadian believes that a good relationship with China serves our best national interest.